Cheyenne Update–Tactical Dilemma Approaching: Cheyenne, knocking off 500 miles a day on her southern route (near 50 South), has found her first iceberg (see pic in day’s first post). Here’s Fossett’s reaction:

“We got a close look at our first icebergs of the trip this morning. This one is at 3 miles. Maybe we have gone far enough South for the time being!

These full sized icebergs should be easy to avoid hitting. The danger are the growlers – which are chunks of ice of mere ‘truck’ size. If we hit one it would be — well, catastrophic. The theory is that growlers will be found up to 3 miles downwind of an iceberg. This means we must divert course to assure that we pass upwind of icebergs. We have tuned up the Radar for constant monitoring at nighttime.

The winds are bit better to the South but we are pleased with our progress and we must not get greedy.”

Good thinking, Steve. But if the weather forecast is accurate Fossett will have an interesting choice going into the weekend. Over to weather router Ken Campbell:

“They should be looking at good winds for the next 4 or 5 days, moving them across the Southern Indian Ocean very quickly. The breeze will back a little on Friday and they’ll need to make a decision then whether to push further South or to go a bit to the North – where the winds may get a little lighter.”

And there you have it: the classic Southern Ocean dilemma. Sail south for a shorter route and better winds and risk tearing the boat apart on a block of frozen water. Or sail north for safety and risk slowing down. Fossett is the king of cool, emotionless risk analysis (how do you think he got so rich in the Chicago options pits?) so it will be interesting to follow his decision making. A lot will depend on how many icebergs they see in the next day, and how big a lead on Orange Fossett thinks he needs to carry past Cape Horn. Stay tuned…



Master Decision Maker: “Hmmm, I wonder if I bought my lucky coin…..”

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