I guess this sort of analysis (by a Motley Fool writer) in Daily Finance is why SeaWorld identified films and books following incidents as a potential risk for investors in the SEC filings for their IPO:
As this “PR battle on the high seas” continues to unfold, important questions should be raised. Who will win this PR battle? Should this be cause for concern with SeaWorld investors? Are there more attractive investment options in the amusement park industry? We will be diving into the answers to these questions and see how even if SeaWorld “wins the argument,” the damage Blackfish is currently wreaking will outweigh, and there are better options for investors to look into.
Why SeaWorld will be harmed
To approach the question by pitting Blackfish against SeaWorld and asking who will win or lose is erroneous. Even if SeaWorld successfully disproves Blackfish’s claims, the company will most likely have already lost in the court of public opinion. Consider the example of the “Gasland” documentary, and how public debate has erupted and actual policy change has been enacted over hydraulic fracturing. Even though the claims of Gasland are hotly disputed, and a counter-production to Gasland was created, Gasland’s bad PR effect on hydraulic fracturing is still influencing people and policy-making today. Blackfish will most likely have the same negative affect on SeaWorld at a time when SeaWorld badly needs revenue.
In the beginning of 2013, I wrote a blog post about SeaWorld going public entitled “Shamu Makes a Splash on Wall Street: The New SeaWorld IPO.” In that post, I outlined why SeaWorld’s stock price might have some potential to rise, but overall the company is a very risky investment to stay away from. Many of the talking points I raised in that post are still legitimate almost eight months later. SeaWorld does have a fairly nice dividend payout, but I would stay away from SeaWorld stock for now, especially in light of the growing Blackfish scandal. The fallout from Blackfish shouldn’t be overestimated and will most likely last only a few months to a year at most. SeaWorld still needs to grapple with other looming issues first, though, and that is why SeaWorld stock is a risky gamble at best.
Wonder if it is right.