Is Nothing Sacred?

Damn, Levis are just about the only thing I wear. And Greenpeace says they are screwing up the environment by using hazardous chemicals in their supply chain. I’ve got to have pants, so if this is true Levis better sort it out. After all, I’ve been wearing Levis happily based on the fact that Good Guide says they are, well, “good.”

At least it looks like a fun protest.

Human Population To Peak In 2030?

Click image for full size.

This could be good news in terms of the stress that humans place on the planet. Instead of peaking at up to 10.5 billion in 2050, this analyst, based on declining fertility rates, thinks human population could peak sooner and lower:

I write about this every now and then, because human fertility is falling faster then most demographers expect.  Using the CIA Factbook for data, the present total fertility rate for the world is 2.47 births per woman that survives childbearing.  Last year it was 2.50, and in 2006 it was 2.90.  2.10 is replacement rate.  At the current trend, the world will be at replacement rate in 2022.  That’s a lot earlier than most expect, and it makes me suggest that global population will top out at 8.5 Billion in 2030, lower and earlier than most expect.

Why are fertility rates declining faster than expected?

  • Educating females makes many of them want to have fewer kids, whether the reason is pain, effort, wanting to work outside the home, etc.
  • Contraception is more widely available.
  • The marriage rate is declining globally.  Willingness to have children is positively correlated with marriage.
  • Governments provide an illusion of support, commonly believed, that the government can support people in their old age, so people don’t have kids for old age support.

So now you know what sorts of policies can make a difference.

Economists and demographers often bemoan declining populations. Anyone who cares about the future of Earth should applaud.

The Tangled (And Impressive) Finances Of Susan Rice

I’ve long thought that John McCain and Lindsey Graham’s shrill jihad against Susan Rice over Benghazi was hyperpartisan blather. But OnEarth reports something that really does give me pause: A huge chunk of Susan Rice’s personal wealth, which is estimated at $23.5-$43.5 million dollars, is tied up in Canadian oil and energy companies. That means that she would directly benefit from a State Department decision to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.

From OnEarth:

Susan Rice, the candidate believed to be favored by President Obama to become the next Secretary of State, holds significant investments in more than a dozen Canadian oil companies and banks that would stand to benefit from expansion of the North American tar sands industry and construction of the proposed $7 billion Keystone XL pipeline. If confirmed by the Senate, one of Rice’s first duties likely would be consideration, and potentially approval, of the controversial mega-project.

Rice’s financial holdings could raise questions about her status as a neutral decision maker. The current U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Rice owns stock valued between $300,000 and $600,000 in TransCanada, the company seeking a federal permit to transport tar sands crude 1,700 miles to refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast, crossing fragile Midwest ecosystems and the largest freshwater aquifer in North America.

Beyond that, according to financial disclosure reports, about a third of Rice’s personal net worth is tied up in oil producers, pipeline operators, and related energy industries north of the 49th parallel — including companies with poor environmental and safety records on both U.S. and Canadian soil. Rice and her husband own at least $1.25 million worth of stock in four of Canada’s eight leading oil producers, as ranked by Forbes magazine. That includes Enbridge, which spilled more than a million gallons of toxic bitumen into Michigan’s Kalamazoo River in 2010 — the largest inland oil spill in U.S. history.

Rice also has smaller stakes in several other big Canadian energy firms, as well as the country’s transportation companies and coal-fired utilities. Another 20 percent or so of her personal wealth is derived from investments in five Canadian banks. These are some of the institutions that provide loans and financial backing to TransCanada and its competitors for tar sands extraction and major infrastructure projects, such as Keystone XL and Enbridge’s proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which would stretch 700 miles from Alberta to the Canadian coast.

Obviously, if she she became Secretary Of State, her financial holdings could be sold off and put into a blind trust. So it’s inconceivable to me that she could be making a decision on Keystone while holding stocks that would make big gains from a green light.

But I guess what surprises me is the extent of her wealth, as well as the fact that it is so tied up in carbon-spewing investments. I don’t know the source of her wealth (maybe it comes from her husband or family), but it’s a reminder of the increasing connection between public service and wealth in this country. Serving in Congress or an administration is a path to riches these days. That has consequences, because it is inevitable that the public interest gets undermined–even if subconsciously–in the daily business of the country as public servants make decision after decision that affect the industries and interests that are or will become the source of their wealth. So the critical divide in America, in my view, is no longer left or right but IN (elite; wealthy; with access to power) and OUT (on the margins; with diminished representation).

While Susan Rice may be a democrat, and may hold liberal views on the environment, her portfolio defines her as a card-carrying member of the one percent. And I prefer my Cabinet secretaries to be of moderate means, with minds and motivations unclouded by the deserve to preserve or add to their wealth.

Rampant Rhino Poaching

Ugh. The war against rhino poaching in South Africa is not going well:

In 2007 only 13 rhino were poached in the country, about the average annual number since 1990. In 2008, the number rose sharply to 83, in 2009, to 123, and so on. This year — which isn’t over yet — 585 rhino have been illegally killed in South Africa.

Local news bulletins regularly report macabre discoveries of rhino carcasses with bloody holes carved into their snouts, deadly firefights between game rangers and heavily armed poachers deep in the bush, or the arrest of Asian “tourists” caught leaving the region with suitcases full of horn. Angry citizens have formed pressure groups to lobby government, raise money for rhino protection, and demonstrate noisily outside courthouses where suspected rhino criminals are on trial. That’s what they were doing when an impassive, shaven-headed Lemtongthai stood in the dock to receive the strictest sentence ever imposed in South Africa for wildlife crime: Framing the rhino as a symbol of Africa and poaching as an affront to African pride, Judge Prince Manyathi sentenced him to 40 years.

Conservationists were elated, some calling it the sort of deterrent that was required to put an end to the carnage. But their joy didn’t last long; a week later, 11 rhino were found on a single day at two private ranches northwest of Johannesburg. Investigators arrested suspects in a poor neighborhood nearby — among them a game ranger — as a newly orphaned baby rhino, found wandering alone in the bush, was taken to an animal sanctuary.

It’s amazing (and appalling) how much of the world’s animal slaughter can be traced to the sexual and medical insecurities of Asian men.

 

Sea Level Rise Visualization

A thought-provoking interactive graphic that let’s you see now what will be flooded later (in major US cities).

Guess what? It’s not very reassuring…

California Farmers vs. Southern Resident Killer Whales (and Salmon)

Just focused on this. So farming interests want to delist Southern Resident killer whales as an endangered species because they want to pump more water out of the salmon rivers (which pressures salmon populations, which in turn puts pressure on the SRKW population).

Their argument, according to this report (and, yes, I am paraphrasing): SRKW are not that genetically distinct from other killer whales and there are lots of killer whales around the world, so who cares if they disappear from Puget Sound.

SEATTLE — The federal government is reviewing whether Puget Sound orcas should keep their endangered status.

NOAA Fisheries said Monday the review was prompted by a petition from the California-based Pacific Legal Foundation(PLF) seeking to delist the killer whales from the Endangered Species Act. The petition asserts that orcas aren’t in danger of becoming extinct because they’re part of a larger population of thriving whales.

NOAA listed southern resident killer whales as endangered in 2005. The orcas frequent Washington’s Puget Sound. They also spend time in the open ocean. There are currently 86 of these whales.

The agency has a year to decide whether it should delist the orcas. It says accepting the petition does not suggest a proposal to delist will follow.

The petition was filed in August on behalf of the Center for Environmental Science, Accuracy, and Reliability, as well as two California Central Valley farmers.

PLF says that the farmers’ water supply is threatened by the orca’s ESA listing.

I’m tempted to point out that the existence of killer whales in Puget Sound is an enormous benefit to coastal communities. So PLF is proposing to enrich one industry at the cost of another. But I don’t want to put this thing on pure economic terms. Instead I want to simply ask: is making money more important than preserving this?

Annals Of Climate Opportunism: Natural Gas Shipments Via The Arctic

Another example of the climate change-carbon economy loop, in which burning carbon leads to warming which in turn leads to new fossil fuel economy opportunities.

In this example, the reduction in Arctic sea ice is opening the northwest and northeast passages to fuel shipping. The first liquid natural gas tanker recently left Norway, and is headed toward Japan, escorted by a Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker:

“It’s an extraordinarily interesting adventure,” Tony Lauritzen, commercial director at Dynagas, told BBC News.

“The people on board have been seeing polar bears on the route. We’ve had the plans for a long time and everything has gone well.”

Mr Lauritzen says that a key factor in the decision to use the northern route was the recent scientific record on melting in the Arctic.

“We have studied lots of observation data – there is an observable trend that the ice conditions are becoming more and more favourable for transiting this route. You are able to reach a highly profitable market by saving 40% of the distance, that’s 40% less fuel used as well.”

Forty percent less fuel burned is good, I guess. But the whole thing, along with Arctic oil drilling, reminds me of a cartoon I posted on my Facebook page earlier today.

 

Climate Symphony

This is very awesome. Yesterday we had the vegetarian rappers. Today we have the Al Gore going all pop passionate over climate change.

Never has climate talk sounded so good.

Via The Climate Reality Project.

More On Climate Change And Superstorm Sandy

Here’s another analysis, from Washington Post Capital Weather Gang blogger Jason Samenow, that is both balanced and detailed. Based on what we know about Sandy, and the scientific literature, here are his five big takeaways:

1) Sandy should not be “blamed” on climate change. Climate change does not cause storms and did not cause Superstorm Sandy. Storms form when certain weather ingredients come together. The historic record shows violent storms, some even more severe than Sandy, have struck the Northeast repeatedly..

2) While climate change did not cause Sandy, it may have been a performance enhancer like a steroid, injecting it with somewhat more energy and power.

3) Sea level rise from manmade climate change increased the water level along the Northeast coast 6 to 8 inches and, as a result, somewhat worsened the coastal flooding from Sandy.

4) There is speculation that decreased Arctic sea ice from manmade climate change altered atmospheric steering currents, strengthening the weather system in the North Atlantic that helped to push Sandy ashore in the Northeast. This idea is controversial.

5) Climate change is likely to slowly increase the intensity of hurricanes in the future, but trends in storm frequency are less certain and the number of storms may actually decrease. Sea levels will continue to rise adding to the coastal flood risk.

He goes on to examine each of these in detail, and includes lots of links to research and related articles. So if you want the full monty on Sandy and climate change I urge you to read the whole thing.

Enlightened Viewing: Minds In The Water

This documentary has long been on my list, and now it’s now available on DVD and Video On Demand, Definitely worth seeing.

Here’s the description:

Minds in the Water, is a award winning documentary following the quest of professional surfer Dave Rastovich and his friends to protect dolphins, whales and the oceans they all share. Through Dave’s journey—a five-year adventure spanning the globe from Australia to the Galapagos, Tonga, California, Alaska and Japan—we see one surfer’s quest to activate his community to help protect the ocean and its inhabitants…[snip]

…Five years in the making, Minds In The Water is the story of one surfer’s international journey to help protect dolphins, whales and their ocean environment. Through the charismatic journey of one person’s life, witness an adventure spanning the globe from Australia and the Galapagos to Tonga, Alaska and Japan. See first hand how one surfer’s quest to protect dolphins and whales has blossomed into a movement of like minds. The film captures a key moment in one person’s life when apathy is no longer an option.

Pro surfer Dave “Rasta” Rastovich went from an ocean minded admirer to an ocean activist when he embarked on a personal mission to help stop the worldwide commercial slaughter of dolphins and whales. While unsure at first, Dave quickly found his activist sea legs and helped build a core team of filmmakers, journalists, musicians, eco-pirates, celebrity surfers and even a professional mermaid to help spread the message. All this has been documented in the film, Minds In The Water.

The message of the film is two fold: The power of one individual to inspire people to take action and make a difference and if ocean minded people are to pass on a sustainable culture, then they must become responsible stewards of their coastal environment.

And here’s the trailer: